Brokerage in the Black Box: Swing States, Strategic Ambiguity, and the Global Politics of AI Governance

Global power dynamics are increasingly shaped by the United States-China rivalry over frontier dual-use technologies, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI). This competition is leading to techno-nationalism, securitization of supply chains, and divergent technological standards, blurring the lines between civilian and military applications. This research highlights the often-overlooked role of 'Technological Swing States' (TSS), defined as middle powers with significant technological capacity and strategic flexibility, in mediating this great-power techno-competition and navigating the inherent uncertainties of frontier technologies.

Why it matters

This research is strategically important because it reorients the understanding of global AI governance by identifying key actors beyond superpowers. Recognizing the mediating role of Technological Swing States is crucial for developing robust international frameworks and mitigating the risks associated with weaponized technological interdependence.

Key insights

• AI is a central component of global power dynamics, intensifying the US-China rivalry.
• The competition between major powers in AI is characterized by techno-nationalism, supply chain securitization, and competing technological standards.
• The nature of this rivalry blurs the boundaries between civilian and military applications of technology.
• Traditional analysis often underemphasizes the role of middle powers in shaping the global techno-order.
• Technological Swing States (TSS) are crucial actors due to their technological capacity and strategic flexibility.
• TSS possess the ability to navigate the uncertainties and opacity of frontier technologies.
• These states can mediate techno-competition between great powers.

Source

arXiv — Computers and Society — https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06412