Indirect Geoeconomic Influence: A Switching Dynamical Systems Framework for Mechanism Design

A research framework grounded in switching dynamical systems models indirect geoeconomic influence, where an influencing sender reshapes a target nation's domestic political economy to generate internal compliance pressure. The model operates across two regimes: a permissive mode that channels domestic pressure toward the sender's objectives, and a contested mode that emerges once the mechanism is detected and attributed.

This framework matters because it formalizes how external actors manipulate domestic economic and institutional structures to achieve strategic compliance without overt diplomatic confrontation. It reveals that the vulnerability of target states lies within their own commercial and civic ecosystems rather than explicit external threats. Furthermore, establishing clear attribution serves as the critical systemic threshold that disrupts covert economic leverage and triggers contested resistance.

Indirect geoeconomic influence bypasses direct bilateral coercion by restructuring target internal political economies so domestic firms, citizens, and institutions apply policy pressure.

Forward consideration, not a verified fact.