Conditions for Social Trajectory Collapse: Agent-Based Simulation of Time-Geographic Trajectory Distributions

An agent-based simulation study, focusing on metropolitan concentration and regional development policies, projects a significant decline in 'trajectory diversity' across five major economies between 2026 and 2036. This diversity, representing recurring activity orientations towards neighborhoods, urban centers, and wider networks, is predicted to fall by 52.6% to 79.0%. The simulation also indicates rising cost burdens across all cases, with welfare declines specifically noted for Russia and Japan.

The projected decline in 'trajectory diversity' and rising cost burdens suggest fundamental shifts in societal interaction and resource allocation. These trends could impact urban planning, economic stability, and social cohesion, requiring proactive strategies to mitigate potential negative consequences.

Trajectory diversity, defined as the variety of recurring activity orientations, is projected to decline significantly (52.6-79.0%) between 2026 and 2036.

Forward consideration, not a verified fact.