Toward a framework of uncertainty in ill-structured problem solving

A systematic review and qualitative synthesis of 74 peer-reviewed articles has led to the development of a framework for understanding uncertainty within ill-structured problem-solving. This framework conceptualizes uncertainty as a subjective metacognitive and psychological experience, defining seven intersecting sources that arise from incomplete, conflicting, or changing information during problem interpretation, judgment, and action regulation.

Why it matters

This framework offers a structured understanding of uncertainty, a common challenge in complex decision-making environments. By identifying specific sources of uncertainty, it provides a basis for developing more robust strategies and tools to navigate ambiguous situations and improve problem-solving effectiveness in strategic planning and operational execution.

Key insights

• A framework has been advanced for understanding uncertainty in ill-structured problem-solving contexts.
• The framework is based on a systematic review and qualitative synthesis of 74 peer-reviewed articles.
• Uncertainty is defined as a subjective metacognitive and psychological experience.
• This experience arises when individuals interpret problems, make judgments, and regulate actions with incomplete, conflicting, or changing information.
• Seven intersecting sources of uncertainty have been delineated: problem context, outcomes, sociocultural influences, epistemological factors, environmental conditions, dynamicity, and complexity.

Source

Educational Technology Research and Development — https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11423-026-10680-5