Research Summary: Non-Great-Power Conflict and AI Risk

Research into the intersection of advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the risk of conflict has predominantly focused on great power confrontations. However, a new study evaluates the importance of non-great-power conflicts (NGPC) as a source of catastrophic risk in an era of increasingly capable AI, suggesting it may be comparably significant.

Why it matters

This research shifts focus to an under-explored but potentially significant area of risk associated with advanced AI. Understanding the implications of AI in non-great-power conflicts is crucial for comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation strategies, extending beyond traditional geopolitical concerns.

Key insights

• Existing research on AI and war risk has largely concentrated on conflicts between great powers.
• Less attention has been given to non-great-power conflicts (NGPC), which include wars between non-great powers, between non-great powers and great powers, civil wars, proxy wars, and conflicts involving non-state actors.
• A study is evaluating whether NGPC is significantly less important than great power conflict (GPC) as a source of catastrophic risk with advanced AI, or if its importance is within an order of magnitude of GPC.
• The research assesses three sub-hypotheses related to NGPC's risk profile in the context of AI.

Source

arXiv — Computers and Society — https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.25839