Research Summary: Indirect Geoeconomic Influence: A Switching Dynamical Systems Framework for Mechanism Design

A research framework grounded in switching dynamical systems models indirect geoeconomic influence, where an influencing sender reshapes a target nation's domestic political economy to generate internal compliance pressure. The model operates across two regimes: a permissive mode that channels domestic pressure toward the sender's objectives, and a contested mode that emerges once the mechanism is detected and attributed.

Why it matters

This framework matters because it formalizes how external actors manipulate domestic economic and institutional structures to achieve strategic compliance without overt diplomatic confrontation. It reveals that the vulnerability of target states lies within their own commercial and civic ecosystems rather than explicit external threats. Furthermore, establishing clear attribution serves as the critical systemic threshold that disrupts covert economic leverage and triggers contested resistance.

Key insights

• Indirect geoeconomic influence bypasses direct bilateral coercion by restructuring target internal political economies so domestic firms, citizens, and institutions apply policy pressure.
• The analytical architecture uses a switching dynamical system governed by mode-dependent rules.
• The operational environment alternates between a permissive mode that transmits compliance pressure and a contested mode triggered by detection and attribution.
• The sender's mechanism design actively influences and shapes the operational transition between system modes.

Source

arXiv — Computers and Society — https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07940