Auditing Recorded Predictive Lead Service-Line Classifications Against Physical Verification: A Statewide Study of New York

A statewide study in New York, examining utilities' classification of lead service line materials under the US Lead and Copper Rule Revisions, reveals discrepancies between predictive model classifications and physical verifications. Among 153 localities, 49% reported uniform classifications for over half of screened addresses, with 7 cases showing significant contradictions between model predictions and physical verification data, suggesting potential issues with model accuracy or reporting practices.

The findings highlight potential vulnerabilities in compliance mechanisms that rely on predictive models without robust validation against physical data. This could impact public health and safety, as inaccurate service line classifications may delay necessary infrastructure remediation and lead to regulatory non-compliance across the sector.

The US Lead and Copper Rule Revisions permit utilities to use predictive models for service line material classification as an alternative to physical inspection.

Forward consideration, not a verified fact.